“Although the deep dive in Q2 which impacts also Q3, suggests (a decline in) full-year GDP (of) 6.5% to 8.5%, we expect a more positive outlook for Q4 with the Philippine economy slowly recovering and milder restrictions in place starting September,” the First Metro Investment Corporation (FMIC) and UA&P said in the September issue of their joint “Market Call” report.

The economy contracted by a record 16.5% in the second quarter after a minus-0.7% performance in the first three months. FMIC and UA&P said early signs of a “mild” recovery started showing up in late August with the release of improved economic data on employment, inflation and remittances.

Unemployment declined to 10% in July from a record 17.7% in April, while inflation eased to a three-month low of 2.4% in August.

OFW remittances posted a second month of growth in July to $2.783 billion, up 7.8% year on year.

“A slew of recently released economic data, including job recovery, slower inflation, sustained growth in OFW remittances and milder quarantine restrictions starting September 1 have raised hopes of faster economic recovery by Q4,” according to the report.

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